Today is the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Montreal.
Thinking back, we were all scared about what we were hearing. Estimates were 30-50 times worse death rate than the annual flu. We all had to decide what we personally could do about the pandemic. I wrote a short summary of my thinking last May (below).
I was wrong on my predictions, but did pretty good on the “things I can control”. Haven’t caught COVID-19 yet.
- Been walking every day, hitting a minimum 10,000 steps and 30 minute of cardio (per Fitbit).
- Eating healthy, taking vitamins (multivitamin, C, D, zinc, and Quercetin). 10-15 minutes meditation since September.
- Got BMI down to 24.5 — in the “normal” range.
- Did the masking, social distancing, and hand washing pretty consistently.
Have an appointment for the vaccine in 10 days. That really eases the personal worries. Vaccinations in Quebec have been ramping up. Hit 30K per day yesterday. Hopeful that the lockdowns will ease in the summer.
My thinking on May 8, 2020:
We’ve been in lock-down for almost 2 months and we’re talking about easing the restrictions real soon. None of the “information” the government and news has been telling us is useful to understand what’ll happen when we un-lockdown.
E.g., in Montreal, there are thousands of businesses still open (hospitals, grocery stores, pharmacies, liquor commissions, etc.) with hundreds of thousands of workers meeting the public every day. Do we know: (1) How many of those workers stayed home because they were feeling sick?; (2) How many were tested for COVID?; (3) How many tested positive? Etc. If we knew that, we could make a guess about what will happen when other businesses open. No reliable information from anyone.
My basic conclusion is there is no silver bullet that will stop COVID-19 in the near term. The flatten the curve approach just slows the spread, but not the total infections. Same number of people infected/dead over a longer period of time. Basically, herd immunity is the only thing we can rely on to stop this thing.
I.e., 60-70% of the population need to get it and recover in order to get past the pandemic. This will happen over the next year. And then there will be periodic flare-ups until everyone gets it. (We might get a vaccine for the 2021-22 flu season, but not likely to be generally available).
Okay… My working assumption is we’ll all get this in the next 12 months. Part of me says the sooner I get it, the sooner it’s over with. But that’s not rational.
Things I can control:
1. It’s a respiratory infection… So work to improve cardio-vascular function: Cardio exercise.
2. It’s an infection… So work to improve immune system: Sleep, healthy nutrition, reduce stress (Ha!), exercise, meditation, etc.
3. Risk factors (for me) are age and above normal BMI… Can’t change my age… So lose some weight.
4. It’s very viral, spread indoors mainly via aerosol/droplets and fomites… Grocery shopping is my only public exposure. Use mask, sanitizer, hand washing, etc.
Timeline? How long do we need to do this?
– Currently, the virus is burning through the long-term care facilities and seniors residences. Residents and staff will be over the hump by end June.
– The virus has started to spread widely in hospitals. All staff in all hospitals will catch it by end July, and they’ll recover by end August.
– Medical consensus on protocol about best way to treat it should be in place by then. (Skin-in-the-game will drive the consensus).
– So it’ll start being “safe” to catch it in September. Hospitals staff will be back to work by then and they’ll know what to do.
Today’s “confirmation bias” article matching my thoughts:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-know-everything-and-nothing-about-covid