Why do this?
The “Rationalist” community suggests making/tracking predictions (including a probability estimate) as a technique for understanding the world better. Example: Scott Alexander (2020 Predictions Calibration).
Scott Adams also suggests it. He often discusses different “frames” for viewing the world. His argument is that certain frames predict better. They predict the “real” world better. He argues that it is a technique for identifying cognitive biases, with the ultimate aim of becoming more successful in life.
Predictions:
- COVID-19 vaccinations in Quebec: Currently (April 19,2021) at 27.5% population vaccinated (first shots). Will hit 75% by July 1. [90% confidence].
- COVID-19 vaccinations, 2nd shots: Will hit 75% by December 1. [75% confidence].
- Border with Ontario: They have shut it this week (April 19). Will reopen by July 31. [60% confidence].
- Summer vacation Parry Sound 2021: Will happen in August. [80% confidence].
- Border with US: Has been shut for 6 months. Will reopen by October 1. [40% confidence].
- We will visit Boston in the fall (Sept/Oct). [30% confidence].
- Hosting Christmas 2021: We will host as usual. [40% confidence].
- Christmas 2021: We will host granddaughter (and her parents) this year. [30% confidence].
- Inflation in Canada 2021: Anecdotally, food prices seem higher this year. Government has been issuing a lot of money due to COVID. This will drive inflation. Has averaged (2015-2019) 1.7%. Was 0.7% in 2020. Predict it will be >3% for 2021. [70% confidence].
- Inflation in Canada 2021: Will be < 2%. [20% confidence].
- Inflation in Canada 2022: Will be >4% for 2022. [30% confidence].
- Stock market 2021: Stock market in Canada and US are at/near all-time highs. (S&P is 4185, GSPTSE at 19,381 on April 19). Will be at or above this on December/31. [90% confidence].
- House prices in Canada (Montreal) 2021: Will continue to rise. [60% confidence].
- House prices 2022: Will flatten or fall due to rising interest rates. [30% confidence].
- Estate Tax Status: 4 tax submissions. Have received Notice of Assessment for 2., awaiting 2. Will receive last 2 by May/31. [80% confidence].
- Estate “closure” requests: Will send within 2 weeks of receiving NoA’s. [95% confidence].
- Estate “closure” responses: Will receive by October 2021. This allows the final distribution from estate. [70% confidence].
- Weight target: I have the goal (since September 2020!) to hit 180 pounds and hold below 182 for a week. I will do this by May 31. [20% confidence]. By December 31. [50% confidence].
- Weight maintenance: I will stay below 189 (BMI 24.9) for rest of 2021. [95% confidence].
- Personal Finances: I will finish the stock consolidation by September 30. [80% confidence].
- Cycling goal: I will average 1 trip per week in summer (May-August). [80% confidence]. 2 trips per week. [40% confidence].
- Gym goal: I will continue home workouts for rest of year. 5-6 per week if no cycling that day. [90% confidence].
- Gym restart: I will restart in September. [60% confidence].
I extracted the CPI info from Stats Canada (non-seasonally adjusted):
| Year | CPI |
| 2015 | 1.12% |
| 2016 | 1.42% |
| 2017 | 1.56% |
| 2018 | 2.30% |
| 2019 | 1.95% |
| 2020 | 0.74% |