Tim Harford writes about Economics and has been involved with a BBC Radio show “More or Less” that presents/discusses/debunks statistics in the news. I probably picked this book up from a recommendation in Tyler Cowan’s blog.
He presents 10 rules to keep in mind when presented with statistics, graphs, and charts in the news:
- Search your feelings
- Ponder your personal experience
- Avoid premature enumeration
- Step back and enjoy the view
- Get the backstory
- Ask who is missing
- Demand transparency when the computer says no
- Don’t take statistical bedrock for granter
- Remember that misinformation can be beautiful too
- Keep an open mind
- The Golden Rule: Be curious
Fundamentally, the rules are aids to understanding what’s “true” or “true-ish”. There is an existing literature under the rubric “lies, damn lies, and statistics. Harford’s book takes an opposite viewpoint — statistics can help identify the truth but we must take care. It is useful to know if we are being lied to, but the hardest problem to avoid is lying to ourselves.
Bottom line: An interesting book if you have not seen similar advice. I found it less so, probably because I have been following Scott Adams’ writing and podcasts in the last 4-5 years.
Adams has a different emphasis on evaluating stories and statistics in the news. He approaches news stories using a “persuasion” filter — what is the narrative that is being portrayed by the news organization. Is the news organization biased? Am I biased? Is there missing context? Etc.